Development of a method for studying the impact of the time reserve value on the reliability of the train schedule based on the epidemiological SIR model

Abstract

It is important to find rational values of time reserves to compensate for delays during train movement to ensure train schedule reliability. This study proposes to investigate the impact of different categories of trains and their time reserve on schedule reliability. The main purpose of the study is to develop a method for studying the extent of the impact of time reserve on train schedule reliability based on the epidemiological model. Mathematical train delay propagation at the section model has been developed on the basis of the Susceptible – Infected – Removed (SIR) epidemiological model of adaptation type (taking into account the effect of using different train categories. It is suggested to use a binary genetic algorithm to search for parameters of delay propagation rate in the SIR model. According to a specially developed data acquisition algorithm, empirical data on the propagation of train delays at the station were obtained. Experimental studies have been carried out to search for train delay propagation velocity coefficients in the SIR model. The train movement restoration results during a delay at the station are given to study the impact of the time reserve value on train schedule reliability, taking into account the speed recovery delay set in the SIR model. The simulation results confirm the developed mathematical model adequacy.