Науково-методичний підхід до прогнозування на основі даних детермінованого факторного аналізу

Abstract

UA: У статті обґрунтовано нагальну необхідність розробки сучасного науковометодичного підходу до прогнозування ключових показників господарської діяльності підприємств в умовах посилення невизначеності економічного розвитку України. Доведено, що класичні методи прогнозування не забезпечують необхідної точності та гнучкості в сучасних реаліях. Науково-методичний підхід до прогнозування показників господарської діяльності підприємств на основі даних динаміки детермінованого факторного аналізу дозволяє забезпечити достатню точність та достовірність отриманих результатів. Особливу увагу приділено адаптації підходу, який запропоновано, до специфіки української економіки з метою підвищення достовірності прогнозів та забезпечення фінансової стійкості підприємств у довгостроковій перспективі.

EN: The article is devoted to solving a pressing scientific and applied problem –development of a scientific and methodological approach to forecasting the economic activity of an enterprise in conditions of chronic instability and turbulence of the external environment caused by the full-scale war in Ukraine. It is substantiated that traditional econometric models (correlation-regression analysis, trend extrapolation) lose their representativeness due to anomalous conditions of business functioning – destruction of infrastructure, logistical collapses, personnel migration, breaks in production chains and limited retrospective data. The article proves that in modern conditions, enterprise management needs not just an accurate forecast, but a tool capable of providing multivariate (scenario) calculations: optimistic, realistic and stressful. This approach allows you to assess the "safety margin" of the enterprise, take into account unclear factors and qualitative risks, as well as operate on short or incomplete data samples, which is critically important for the economy of the war and post-war periods. The main idea of the study is to combine the tools of deterministic factor analysis with forecasting methods based on time series. The factor method, unlike purely statistical methods, allows you to deeply penetrate the internal structure of financial and economic processes, quantitatively measure the impact of individual factors (for example, changes in prices, labor productivity, production volumes) on the performance indicator. This makes it possible to build forecasts not on the basis of searching for formal mathematical patterns that collapse under the influence of "black swans", but on the basis of modeling changes in factor characteristics under different scenarios of events. The authors substantiate that the proposed approach provides the necessary stress resistance and adaptability of management decisions. It allows you to move from the statement of past trends to active management of the future by varying factor indicators. This allows the enterprise to prepare in advance for adverse changes (devaluation, inflation, blackouts) or to use favorable opportunities as effectively as possible. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the development of theoretical and methodological principles of forecasting, which, unlike existing approaches, integrates deterministic factor analysis with forecasting based on a time series, taking into account the conditions of uncertainty and turbulence of the market environment. Such integration creates a unified toolkit that comprehensively covers both quantitative performance indicators and qualitative risk factors. The practical significance of the research results lies in the possibility of using the proposed approach by financial analysts and managers of enterprises for operational tactical planning. It allows you to obtain relevant forecast estimates in real time, which is the key to maintaining financial stability and making informed management decisions in conditions of high uncertainty.