Комплексний підхід до оцінювання ризиків відмов у виробничих системах вагоноремонтних підприємств

Abstract

In modern conditions of operation of wagon repair enterprises, there is an actual decrease in the reliability of production systems. This is due to both the influence of external factors and the shortcomings of the system itself. To ensure a given level of reliability, it is proposed to introduce an industrial risk management system using advanced methods for predicting the state of complex systems. Cause-and-effect analysis consists of the combined use of two separate methods for studying the reliability of complex systems - “fault trees” and “event trees”. The initial data for its implementation are a schematic representation of how the system can fail, as well as a quantitative assessment of the probability of each possible event.